For example, in the context of transportation, electric vehicles (EVs) may have the upper hand by 2030, particularly if the cost of carbon emissions is factored into the equation. Due to major improvements in the cost and efficiency of batteries, the total cost of ownership (TCO) for EVs could drop sharply, putting pressure on the price of fuel for internal combustion engines (ICE) and pushing the target breakeven to below $40 per barrel. Alongside that, carbon taxes could also increase prices by $3 to $8 per barrel of oil, changing the cost curve. To maintain double-digit returns at that breakeven level, the industry will need to reduce its unit expenditure by more than 50%— to about $12 per barrel as shown in figure 1, below.