The shares of Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO) have not yet reached the highs observed in 2018 despite the surge in benchmark oil prices, arising from geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The company is engaged in exploration and production of oil & natural gas in the Eagle Ford, Bakken, STACK, and SCOOP regions in the U.S. In 2021, the company reported 347 mboed of oil & natural gas sales with a similar production level targeted for 2022. The company has also maintained a prudent capital investment plan of $1.2 billion in 2022 consistent with the cost curtailment measures implemented in 2020. Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, MRO stock has a 51% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis Marathon Oil Stock Chance of Rise for more details. (related: More Room For Growth In ConocoPhillips Stock?)

Five Days: MRO -1.5%, vs. S&P 500 -1.4%; Underperformed market (33% event probability)

• MRO stock declined 1.5% over a five-day trading period ending 2/22/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 1.4% over the same period.
• Returns of -1.5% or lower over five-day period on 826 occasions out of 2516 (33%); Stock rose in the next five days in 412 of these 826 instances (50%).

Ten Days: MRO 1.7%, vs. S&P 500 -3.2%; Outperformed market (38% event probability)

• MRO stock gained 1.7% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 3.2%.
• Returns of 1.7% or higher over 10-day period on 961 occasions out of 2516 (38%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 520 of these 961 instances (54%).

Twenty-One Days: MRO 17%, vs. S&P 500 -2.8%; Outperformed market (11% event probability)

• MRO stock gained 17% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 2.8%.
• Returns of 17% or higher over 21-day period on 271 occasions out of 2516 (11%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 139 of these 271 instances (51%).